Hurricane Season in the Virgin Islands: Storm Odds by Month

Quick answer: the Virgin Islands’ hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30, with August and September the busiest months. In the last 50 seasons a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles of St. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix or Tortola in 26 of 50 seasons, and a hurricane came within 50 miles of at least one of them in 10 of 50 seasons.

Pick where you are going and when. See in how many of the last 50 hurricane seasons a tropical storm or hurricane came within 100 miles on those dates, and which nearby weeks were calmer.

days

The year does not matter: this is what happened on these dates in each of the last 50 seasons.

Key West · Sep 10–16

2 of 50 seasonsA tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles of Key West on these dates in 2 of the 50 seasons 1976–2025: 4%.

Within 50 miles
1 of 50
A hurricane within 50 miles
1 of 50
A hurricane within 100 miles
1 of 50
  • Safest dates within 4 weeks: Oct 1–7 (0 of 50 seasons), 3 weeks later.
  • Storms on these dates: Sally 2020, Irma 2017.
  • In 1976–2025, storms came within 100 miles of Key West between Jul 6 and Nov 19.

Historical frequency from NOAA’s best tracks for 1976–2025, not a forecast. For storms this season, see the National Hurricane Center.

The tool above opens on St. Thomas for September 10–16: change the dates to yours, or pick St. John, St. Croix and Tortola. Below, the Virgin Islands’s whole record, 1976–2025.

Place by place

PlaceStorm within 100 miHurricane within 50 miBusiest week
St. Thomas25 of 50 seasons7 of 50 seasonsAug 20–26 (5)
St. John25 of 50 seasons8 of 50 seasonsAug 20–26 (5)
St. Croix25 of 50 seasons8 of 50 seasonsAug 20–26 (4)
Tortola25 of 50 seasons10 of 50 seasonsAug 20–26 (5)

Hurricane season in the Virgin Islands, month by month

In how many of the 50 seasons a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles of each place at some point in that month.

MonthSt. ThomasSt. JohnSt. CroixTortolaAny of them
June00000
July22222
August1010101012
September1010101011
October66566
November22222

Hugo (1989), Marilyn (1995) and Irma (2017) passed within 50 miles of St. Thomas as hurricanes; Maria (2017) did the same at St. Croix two weeks after Irma.

The busiest week

St. Thomas: Aug 20–26, when a storm came within 100 miles in 5 of 50 seasons (1 other week ties). St. John: Aug 20–26, when a storm came within 100 miles in 5 of 50 seasons (1 other week ties). St. Croix: Aug 20–26, when a storm came within 100 miles in 4 of 50 seasons (2 other weeks tie). Tortola: Aug 20–26, when a storm came within 100 miles in 5 of 50 seasons (1 other week ties). The chart in the tool shows all 52 weeks.

Every storm within 100 miles since 1976 (37)

StormWithin 100 milesClosestNear
Ernesto (2024)Aug 13–14a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Philippe (2023)Oct 3–4a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Earl (2022)Sep 3–4a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and Tortola
Fiona (2022)Sep 17–18a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Croix
Fred (2021)Aug 10–11a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix
Laura (2020)Aug 22a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Dorian (2019)Aug 28–29a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Karen (2019)Sep 24–25a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Irma (2017)Sep 6a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Maria (2017)Sep 19–20a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Erika (2015)Aug 27–28a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Bertha (2014)Aug 2a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Croix
Gonzalo (2014)Oct 14a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and Tortola
Rafael (2012)Oct 13–14a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Irene (2011)Aug 21–22a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Maria (2011)Sep 11a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and Tortola
Earl (2010)Aug 30–31a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Omar (2008)Oct 15–16a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Chris (2006)Aug 2a tropical storm within 100 milesTortola
Jeanne (2004)Sep 14–15a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Dean (2001)Aug 22a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Debby (2000)Aug 22a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Jose (1999)Oct 21–22a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Lenny (1999)Nov 17–18a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Bonnie (1998)Aug 21a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and Tortola
Georges (1998)Sep 21–22a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Bertha (1996)Jul 8a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Hortense (1996)Sep 9–10a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Croix
Luis (1995)Sep 6a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John and Tortola
Marilyn (1995)Sep 15–16a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Klaus (1990)Oct 7a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Hugo (1989)Sep 17–18a hurricane within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Klaus (1984)Nov 7–8a hurricane within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Floyd (1981)Sep 4–5a tropical storm within 100 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Gert (1981)Sep 8a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Claudette (1979)Jul 17–18a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola
Frederic (1979)Sep 3–4a tropical storm within 50 milesSt. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix and Tortola

When the season runs

the Virgin Islands is in the Atlantic basin, whose hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 (source). The season is when storms are likely, not the only time they can form: the table above counts every storm, whenever it came.

Plan it

FAQ

When is hurricane season in the Virgin Islands?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, peaking around September 10. In 50 seasons (1976–2025), the storms that came within 100 miles of St. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix or Tortola did so between July 8 and November 18, most often in August.

Does the Virgin Islands get hurricanes?

Yes. In 50 seasons, a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles of St. Thomas, St. John, St. Croix or Tortola in 26, and a hurricane came within 50 miles in 10: Dorian (2019), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), Earl (2010) and 8 more.

What is the worst month for hurricanes in the Virgin Islands?

August: a storm came within 100 miles in 12 of the 50 seasons, then September with 11.

What is the safest time to visit the Virgin Islands in hurricane season?

Within the season, June: no storm came within 100 miles in any of the 50 seasons. Outside June 1 to November 30, no storm came near at all.

How these numbers are made

From NOAA’s best tracks (HURDAT2), every storm’s centre is followed hour by hour and measured against each place; a season counts once it had a tropical storm or hurricane within 100 miles (or 50) on at least one day. It is history, not a forecast: for a storm that exists today, read the National Hurricane Center.

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