Hurricane Risk for Your Trip
Pick where you are going and when. See in how many of the last 50 hurricane seasons a tropical storm or hurricane came within 100 miles on those dates, and which nearby weeks were calmer.
Key West · Sep 10–16
2 of 50 seasonsA tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles of Key West on these dates in 2 of the 50 seasons 1976–2025: 4%.
- Within 50 miles
- 1 of 50
- A hurricane within 50 miles
- 1 of 50
- A hurricane within 100 miles
- 1 of 50
- Safest dates within 4 weeks: Oct 1–7 (0 of 50 seasons), 3 weeks later.
- Storms on these dates: Sally 2020, Irma 2017.
- In 1976–2025, storms came within 100 miles of Key West between Jul 6 and Nov 19.
Historical frequency from NOAA’s best tracks for 1976–2025, not a forecast. For storms this season, see the National Hurricane Center.
Quick answer: the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks on September 10, with most storms between mid-August and mid-October. Mexico’s Pacific coast has its own season, May 15 to November 30. At any one beach, though, a storm on your exact week is rare: in the last 50 seasons a tropical storm or hurricane came within 100 miles of Key West during September 10–16 in 2 of them.
How to use it
Pick your destination, the day you arrive and how many days you will stay. The calculator looks at every season from 1976 to 2025 and counts in how many of them a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles (and within 50) while you would have been there. The bars show the whole year week by week, with your trip highlighted, and it suggests the calmest dates within four weeks either side.
When is hurricane season?
From the National Hurricane Center: the Atlantic season, which covers Florida, the Gulf, the Bahamas, the Caribbean and Mexico’s Caribbean coast, runs June 1 to November 30. Its peak is September 10, and most activity falls between mid-August and mid-October. The eastern Pacific season, for Cabo, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán and Acapulco, runs May 15 to November 30 and peaks less sharply in late August. Storms do happen outside those dates, and the calculator counts them too.
Storms by month at 12 favourite places
In how many of the 50 seasons from 1976 to 2025 a tropical storm or hurricane passed within 100 miles at some point in that month. Counted from NOAA’s best tracks.
| Place | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Beach | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Key West | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Orlando | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Tampa | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Nassau | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| San Juan | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Cancún | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Punta Cana | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Montego Bay | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Aruba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Cabo San Lucas | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 10 | 1 |
| Honolulu (Oʻahu) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
A month is a long window, so these are higher than the numbers for a one-week trip. Cancún’s busiest month is October, not September. Cabo San Lucas, on the Pacific, sees more September storms than anywhere else in the calculator: 24 of the 50 seasons.
Worked examples
Key West, September 10–16
2 of 50 seasons (4%): Irma in 2017 and Sally in 2020. The same week three weeks later, October 1–7, had no storm within 100 miles in any of the 50.
Cabo San Lucas, September 10–16
7 of 50 seasons (14%), 3 of them with a hurricane within 50 miles, including Odile in 2014. The first half of September is the busiest time of year there.
Cancún, October 15–21
1 of 50 seasons: Wilma in 2005, one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic.
Aruba, September 10–16
1 of 50 seasons (Greta, 1978). Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire sit south of where most storms track.
How to read the answer
- It is history, not a forecast. It says how often a storm came near on those dates, not what this year will do. Once your trip is close, the National Hurricane Center is the only source for real storms.
- 100 miles is the centre of the storm. A big storm’s rain and wind can reach further, and a small one can pass 60 miles away with little more than a windy day.
- 0 of 50 is not “never”. It means no storm came that close in those dates in 50 years.
- Insurance. Many travel insurance policies will not cover a storm that already had a name when you bought the policy, so buy it when you book.
Planning a trip in the season
Going to Florida: is Tampa safe from hurricanes?, what happens at Disney World in a hurricane and the cheapest month to visit Florida. In the Caribbean: hurricanes in Grenada, is May a good month for the Caribbean? and the best islands in January.
FAQ
When is hurricane season?
In the Atlantic, the Gulf and the Caribbean it runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak on September 10. On Mexico’s Pacific coast it runs from May 15 to November 30.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
June 1 to November 30. In the last 50 seasons most storms that came within 100 miles of Miami Beach, Key West or Orlando came in August, September and October.
When is hurricane season in the Bahamas?
The same as Florida’s: June 1 to November 30. Near Nassau, August and September each had a storm within 100 miles in 6 of the last 50 seasons.
When is hurricane season in Mexico?
Cancún and the Caribbean coast follow the Atlantic season (June 1 to November 30), and October has been their busiest month. Cabo, Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco follow the eastern Pacific season, May 15 to November 30, and Cabo’s busiest month is September.
What is the safest Caribbean island in hurricane season?
Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire and Trinidad lie south of the usual storm tracks. In the last 50 seasons Aruba had a storm within 100 miles in September in 4 of them, against 10 for San Juan.
How likely is a hurricane on my vacation?
At one place in one week, usually low: a few seasons in 50 even at the peak. Enter your destination and dates above to see the exact count for your trip.