Great Lakes Ice Cover by Month: Does Lake Erie, Michigan or Superior Freeze?
Does Lake Erie, Michigan, Superior, Huron or Ontario freeze, and how much of it is ice in the month you go? NOAA’s ice charts since 1973, month by month, each winter’s peak, and today’s ice in season.
The Great Lakes in February: about 30% iced over in a typical winterFebruary’s average in the middle winter of the last 20 (2007–2026); in most winters 6–55%. More than half of the lakes’ surface was ice on some day of February in 8 of 20 winters.
The Great Lakes, December to April in a typical winter
Do the Great Lakes freeze over?
Rarely: 90% or more of their surface was ice at the peak of 2 of 54 winters since 1973, most recently 92% on March 6, 2014. Their most: 95% in 1979. More than half was ice at the peak of 31 of 54 winters; in the last 20 winters the middle one peaked at 49%.
The Great Lakes’ peak, the last ten winters
The lakes in February, a typical winter, most ice first
- Lake Erie: 78%
- Lake Huron: 38%
- Lake Michigan: 20%
- Lake Superior: 18%
- Lake Ontario: 10%
Ice cover: NOAA GLERL’s Great Lakes Ice Cover Database — each lake’s daily average, % of its surface, from the Canadian Ice Service’s charts (1973–1988) and the U.S. National Ice Center’s (1989 on). A typical winter is the middle of the last 20 (2007–2026), “most winters” the middle 80%; each winter’s peak is GLERL’s annual maximum. GLERL’s pages label Lake Ontario “Lake America”.
Quick answer: Lake Erie is the Great Lake that freezes: about 78% of it is ice in a typical February, and 90% or more of it was ice at the peak of 35 of 54 winters since 1973. Lake Superior and Huron get there in some winters, Lake Michigan rarely (93% at most), and Lake Ontario never (86% at most, 1979).
How to use it
Pick a lake, or all the Great Lakes together, and the month you go; inside the ice season (December to April) the month you are in is filled in, and February outside it. The answer is how much of the lake is ice that month in a typical winter, the range most winters fall in, and in how many winters more than half of it was ice on some day of that month. For May, June and November it says in how many winters there was any ice at all, and the earliest or latest day NOAA’s charts show it. Below it: December to April as bars, whether the lake freezes over, its peak in each of the last ten winters, and the lakes side by side. From December to April it also shows NOAA’s latest day and this winter’s peak so far.
Where the numbers come from
NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) keeps the Great Lakes Ice Cover Database: the share of each lake’s surface that is ice, every day of every winter since 1973. In GLERL’s words: “Weekly ice cover imaging products produced by the Canadian Ice Service started in 1973. Beginning in 1989, the U.S. National Ice Center produced Great Lakes ice cover charts that combined both Canadian and U.S. agency satellite imagery.” A typical winter here is the middle one of the last 20 (2007–2026), averaged over the month, and “most winters” are the middle 80% of them; a month counts for a winter when NOAA charted at least two thirds of its days. Each winter’s peak is GLERL’s own annual maximum, with its date. For the edges of the season, ice means 1% of the lake or more. The percentages are of the whole lake, so they say how much of it is frozen, not whether the ice off a given beach is. GLERL’s pages now label Lake Ontario “Lake America”; it is the same lake and the same record.
| Lake | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Typical peak | Winters at 90%+ | Most |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All the Great Lakes | 2% | 11% | 30% | 19% | 4% | 49% | 2 of 54 | 95% (1979) |
| Lake Superior | 1% | 4% | 18% | 14% | 3% | 48% | 11 of 54 | 100% (1996) |
| Lake Michigan | 2% | 11% | 20% | 11% | 2% | 33% | 3 of 54 | 93% (1977, 2014) |
| Lake Huron | 3% | 15% | 38% | 20% | 6% | 62% | 11 of 54 | 98% (1996) |
| Lake Erie | under 1% | 17% | 78% | 23% | under 1% | 94% | 35 of 54 | 100% (1978, 1979, 1996) |
| Lake Ontario | under 1% | 3% | 10% | 3% | under 1% | 24% | 0 of 54 | 86% (1979) |
Each month is the share of the lake that is ice in a typical winter of the last 20; “typical peak” is the middle of those 20 winters’ highest days; the last two columns are every winter since 1973. February is the iciest month on every lake. Lake Erie is about 78% ice in a typical February and its typical peak is 94%. Lake Huron is next (38% in February, a typical peak of 62%), then Lake Michigan (20%), Lake Superior (18%) and Lake Ontario (10%). In December every lake is 3% ice or less.
No two winters are alike. Lake Erie peaked at 96% on February 5, 2026, and at 16% in 2020. All the Great Lakes together peaked at 16% in 2024 and at 58% in 2026. Over all 54 winters the Great Lakes’ peak averaged 52%; over the last 20, 48%.
When the ice peaks
GLERL: “Maximum ice cover on the lower lakes (like Lake Erie) normally occurs between mid-February and end of February.” and “Maximum ice cover on the upper lakes (like Lake Superior) normally occurs between end of February and early March.” It shows in the months: Lake Superior’s typical March (14%) is close to its typical February (18%), while Lake Erie drops from 78% in February to 23% in March. On why Lake Ontario has the least ice, GLERL writes (its pages call the lake Lake America): “Lake America’s extreme depth (86 m average; 244 m maximum) translates to tremendous heat storage capacity.”
Ice cover is not ice you can stand on
A lake 90% iced over still has open water, the other 10%, and the percentage says nothing about how thick the ice is or where it is weak. Along the beaches the National Park Service at Sleeping Bear Dunes on Lake Michigan: “Although shelf ice appears solid, it provides only a false sense of security.” “Shelf ice is an unstable formation that builds from the beach out to the lake, without freezing to the lake bottom.” Its advice: “Only view shelf ice from solid ground, and never attempt to climb it.”
Worked examples
Lake Erie in February. About 78% iced over in a typical winter; more than half of it was ice on some day of February in 15 of the last 20 winters. Not every year: its peak in 2020 was 16%.
Lake Superior in March. About 14% in a typical winter, but most winters fall between 2% and 66%, and in 9 of the last 20 more than half of it was ice on some day of March. Its peak comes late, so March can be its iciest month.
Lake Michigan in January. About 11% ice in a typical winter; more than half of it was ice on some day of January in 1 of the last 20 winters.
The Great Lakes in December. About 2% of their surface is ice in a typical winter; in none of the last 20 was more than half of it ice in December.
Common mistakes
- Taking a high ice cover for safe ice. The percentage is how much of the lake is frozen, not how thick the ice is or whether it will hold you; see the Park Service’s words above.
- Planning a frozen-lake trip for December. In a typical December Lake Erie is under 1% ice and the Great Lakes together 2%.
- Expecting this winter to be the typical one. Lake Erie’s peak was 96% in 2026 and 16% in 2020; the range is wide on every lake.
- Expecting Lake Ontario to freeze like Lake Erie. Its peak has never reached 90% since 1973; in a typical winter it peaks at 24%.
- Reading the long record as today’s. Over the last 20 winters the Great Lakes’ peak averaged 48%, below the 52% of all 54.
Plan the rest of the trip
Read whether Lake Erie freezes, whether anyone has walked across Lake Erie, how deep Lake Erie is and whether Lake Erie is always cold, or what to see on Mackinac Island. Going in summer instead? Great Lakes Water Temperature by Month has each lake’s water, month by month, and the Northern Lights Forecast says whether the aurora may show over the lakes tonight.
FAQ
Do the Great Lakes freeze?
Partly, every winter, and almost completely only rarely: 90% or more of their surface was ice at the peak of 2 of 54 winters since 1973 (95% in 1979, 92% in 2014). In the last 20 winters the middle one peaked at 49%, usually in February.
Does Lake Erie freeze?
Nearly, in most winters: 90% or more of it was ice at the peak of 35 of 54 winters since 1973, all of it in 1978, 1979 and 1996, and 96% on February 5, 2026. In a typical February about 78% of it is ice. Some winters stay open: its peak was 16% in 2020.
Does Lake Michigan freeze?
Rarely over: 90% or more of it was ice at the peak of 3 of 54 winters since 1973, 93% at most (1977 and 2014). In a typical winter about 20% of it is ice in February, and the middle winter of the last 20 peaked at 33%.
Does Lake Superior freeze?
In some winters: 90% or more of it was ice at the peak of 11 of 54 winters since 1973, all of it in 1996, and 95% on March 8, 2019. In a typical winter about 18% of it is ice in February and 14% in March; the middle winter of the last 20 peaked at 48%.
Does Lake Ontario freeze?
Not over: in 54 winters since 1973 its peak never reached 90%, and its most was 86% in 1979. In a typical winter about 10% of it is ice in February, and the middle winter of the last 20 peaked at 24%.
What is the Great Lakes ice cover today?
From December to April the tool shows NOAA’s latest day for each lake and this winter’s peak so far, from GLERL’s CoastWatch node, beside GLERL’s long-term average for that date. Outside the season there is no ice to report: in 54 winters NOAA’s charts show ice on a lake no earlier than November 17 (Lake Huron, 2019).
How much of Lake Erie is covered in ice?
In a typical winter of the last 20: under 1% in December, 17% in January, 78% in February, 23% in March and under 1% in April. Its peak usually comes in February; the middle winter of the last 20 peaked at 94%.
Is the ice on the Great Lakes safe to walk on?
The ice cover says nothing about that. The National Park Service warns that shelf ice “is an unstable formation that builds from the beach out to the lake, without freezing to the lake bottom”, and advises: “Only view shelf ice from solid ground, and never attempt to climb it.”